Original thinking | 6 March 2026Download

Monthly news and views covering February

Illustration of two silhouetted figures pushing a large globe on a flat surface.

Ian Rees

IN BRIEF

Geopolitical matters have continued to grab the headlines
A landslide victory for the popular Prime Minister of Japan has bolstered the growth outlook
Ongoing technological developments has seen further turbulence within US technology stocks
UK corporate results continue to impress, but the political temperature is turned up on the PM
The interest rate outlook continues to be supportive, but inflation risks are not benign

For information purposes only. Any views and opinions expressed here are those of the author at the time of writing and can change; they may not represent the views of Premier Miton and should not be taken as statements of fact, nor should they be relied upon for making investment decisions.

Investing involves risk.The value of an investment can go down as well as up which means that you could get back less than you originally invested when you come to sell your investment. The value of your investment might not keep up with any rise in the cost of living.

Premier Miton is unable to provide investment, tax or financial planning advice. We recommend that you discuss any investment decisions with a financial adviser.

For further information on the risks of investment and glossary terms please refer to the end of the document.

Latest news – events in Iran

As we write this monthly note, there is a considerable geopolitical event unfolding in the Middle East. The initial financial market reaction has been relatively muted, although there remains potential for turbulence in the following days.

It appears quite logical that a higher risk premium (the additional return investors typically seek for taking extra risk) is typically demanded of risk assets (investments such as shares that can rise or fall in value) during these periods of uncertainty, although we note that recent market moves have only given back some of the strong gains seen during February. While it is possible that, as the initial shock and negative sentiment abates, the impact on financial markets may also ease as the longer-term growth outlook reasserts itself, this cannot be assumed with certainty. However, while this has been the historical precedent, we must remain alert to the specific threat posed by a sharp rise in the price of oil, given its impact on inflation and the global growth outlook.

We are monitoring both the oil price and inflation expectations quite closely at this point, together with the sensitivity of our portfolios to any shocks here. We do not think we carry any outsized risk, but it is helpful to keep this under review. We consider it extremely difficult to try and predict future events or position portfolios in anticipation of unknowable outcomes. Our experience of running portfolios over many turbulent periods in preceding decades is that taking either bold or speculative action in response to a fast-moving unpredictable dynamic is more likely to provide an outcome driven by luck rather than sound judgement.

Instead, our disciplined and established approach is to use any market volatility to review our allocations and the opportunities presented. We will look to add value by taking advantage of relative moves in assets and across markets, allowing volatility to work to our advantage rather than taking speculative bets that increase the investment risk being taken. By running all our portfolios with geographic and asset diversification (spreading investments across regions and different types of assets to reduce risk), we seek to provide some stability against such exogenous events.

The month of February

Political and geopolitical developments continued to buffer financial markets during February. At the end of the first week, Prime Minister Takaichi of Japan consolidated her popularity with a landslide snap-election win.

Elected on a ticket of stimulating growth, the aim is to grow tax revenues by aligning industrial and defence policy with government spending plans. These proposals helped ensure the Japanese stock market was one of the top performers over the month, outstripped only by the Korean KOSPI Index as strong earnings forecasts for the semiconductor sector (companies that design and manufacture computer chips) drove Samsung and SK Hynix, the largest constituents within KOSPI, much higher.

As in the prior month, US technology stocks continued to struggle. The launch of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) software tool from Anthropic has raised the possibility of companies being disrupted by this new technology, weighing on law firms, customer service providers, software companies, publishing and advertising businesses. Even AI leaders were not immune from this more discerning mood. Despite record reported revenues at Nvidia, fears of an investment overspend (spending heavily with uncertain financial return) with little regard to future profitability, caused the shares to retreat. This suggests that even technology leaders with already high valuations (the market value placed on company’s shares) can still be vulnerable to excessive optimism.

The perception of the US economy was not helped by a disparity in some of the published economic data. While there was a solid rebound in Service Sector and Manufacturing expectations, a private hiring report indicated a stagnating jobs market, this contradicted a more solid US employment report released the same week. That we are seeing such results is indicative to us of a slowing to a more sedate pace after a prolonged period of strength. One area to watch remains US inflation. This has remained a little stickier than authorities would ideally welcome. With Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index staying at 3%, the recent statement from the interest rate setting Committee of the US Central Bank, suggesting that a hike in US rates could be a possibility if inflation did not cool, was a warning shot on inflation risk complacency.

It was also reported that the US Supreme Court ruled against the global import taxes implemented by President Trump last year. The response was swift, with President Trump signing-in new tariffs to immediately replace those struck down. However, these only remain valid to a maximum level of 15% for 150 days before referral to Congress. Given the temporary nature of this reprieve, we consider there may be further uncertainty and volatility to prevail as this policy develops further.

In the UK, domestic politics provided some angst for the UK Prime Minister following his appointment of Lord Mandelson as UK Ambassador to the United States last year. Having survived several calls to resign, UK Gilts (UK government bonds) and Sterling both remained steady as the PM withstood the onslaught. Thankfully corporate reporting produced some cheer for the UK stock market as Utilities, Mining and Pharmaceutical stocks delivered good results. Economic data added to this positive mood as did falling inflation, record January tax receipts and strong retail sales all helped the UK stock market deliver a very strong result, ahead of European and US index returns for the month.

Similar to the UK, European surveys of business intent showed continued improvement in the Service sector, while Manufacturing measures positively surprised with a move into expansionary territory. With inflation being contained at 2.2%, lack of inflationary pressure provides potential headroom for growth to accelerate in the coming months. We therefore will be watching for evidence that the capital taps (government or corporate spending budgets) for infrastructure and defence spending start to turn in the following months.

With rising tensions and a US military build-up nearing Iran, this caused a counter-balancing flight to safety as the month ended. US Treasury bond yields (the interest rates on US government bonds) were marginally softer as their prices rose, while Gold regained momentum from its recent retreat to finish above US $5,200 per ounce once more. However, the commodity which we are paying most attention to is oil. Due to its importance in manufacturing and construction sectors, any rise in the oil price can induce inflationary consequences, acting as a brake to global economic growth. The price of Brent Crude Oil has now risen from under US $60 per barrel to top US $70 per barrel by the end of the month. It is however important to add the context that oil traded quite happily at this level as recently as January 2025, having consistently traded above $75 per barrel from 2021 to early 2025.

Finally, China welcomed in their New Year, although the stock market did retreat from some of its strong advance during January. With astrologers noting 2026 as the Year of the Fire Horse, it seems fitting that this usually signifies major upheaval and swift transformation ahead!

Table showing percentage returns in GBP for major global market indices in February 2026.

The performance information presented on this page relates to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Key positioning for portfolios

The last change to portfolios occurred on 20^th February:

Our overall equity weighting for each portfolio was rebalanced to the long-term asset allocation allowing us to maintain a controlled allocation to the positive corporate earnings growth outlook.
After a robust performance, Pacific Equities were reduced in favour of an increase in Emerging Markets, enabling us to take profits from areas driven by the Asian technology theme, from a broader Emerging Market allocation supported by both fiscal and monetary policy improvements.
Due to greater budgetary and inflation pressures, we have reduced Government Bonds to the long‑term asset allocation, reallocating this to high‑quality corporate bonds or to Emerging Market Debt.
Risk monitoring and management continues to be a core priority across all portfolios.

February was yet another month that US equities lagged World equities - Ian Rees

Glossary

Bonds (or fixed income)

Types of investments that allow investors to loan money to governments and companies, usually in return for a regular fixed level of interest until the bond’s maturity date, plus the return of the original value of the bond at the maturity date. The price of bonds will vary, and the investment terms of bonds will also vary.

Bloomberg 500 Index

Bloomberg 500 Index is a weighted benchmark of the 500 largest US companies.

Bloomberg China Large & Mid Cap Total Return Index

A market index that tracks the performance of major companies across emerging markets, excluding China. It focuses on large and medium‑sized companies and includes dividends, giving a fuller picture of total returns for investors.

Bloomberg India Large & Mid Cap Total Return Index

The Bloomberg India Large & Mid Cap Index follows a wide group of India’s major companies, mainly large and medium‑sized firms, giving investors a good overall picture of how the Indian stock market is performing.

Commodities

These are natural resources such as gold, oil, gas, metals or agricultural products that have practical uses and can be bought and sold on financial markets.

Emerging Markets

Countries with less developed financial markets and which are generally considered riskier than investing in developed markets.

Equities

Another name for shares (or stock) in a company.

FTSE All World Total Return Index

The FTSE All-World Total Return Index is a global equity benchmark that measures the performance of large and medium sized companies across both developed and emerging markets worldwide. This also contains the dividends reinvested.

FTSE All-Share Index Total Return Index

The FTSE All‑Share Total Return Index is a comprehensive measure of UK equity market performance, capturing nearly all eligible companies listed on the London Stock Exchange and including reinvested dividends

Government bonds

A type of bond, issued by a government. They pay out a regular fixed amount of interest until the bond’s maturity date, when the issue value of the bond should also be repaid. In the UK they are called gilts and in the US they are referred to as treasuries.

Index

An index is a method of tracking the performance of a group of shares, bonds, other assets or factors. For example, the FTSE 100 Index is made up of the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange.

Korea Stock Exchange (KOSPI)

The Korean Composite Stock Price Indexes (KOSPI) track the performance of companies on the Korean Stock Exchange, with the KOSPI 200 being the most prominent.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and medium sized companies represented across Emerging Markets countries.

Emerging market debt

Bonds issued by less developed countries’ governments and companies within those countries.

Tokyo Stock Price Total Return Index

The Tokyo Price Index (TOPIX) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that tracks the performance of all large firms listed in the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Total return

A way of showing how an investment has performed and is made-up of the capital appreciation or depreciation and includes any income generated by the investment. Measured over a set period, it is expressed as a percentage of the value of the investment at the start of that period.

Yield

The dividend per share divided by the stock's or fund’s price per share and expressed as a percentage. The historic yield is the dividend income distributed during the past year and expressed as a percentage of the share price on a particular day.

Risks

Typically, there is less risk of losing money over the long-term (which we define as over 5 years) from an investment that is considered low risk, although potential returns may also be lower. Investments considered higher risk typically offer greater opportunities for better long-term returns, though the risk of losing money is also likely to be higher.

The performance information presented in this document relates to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

Some of the main specific risks that apply to the funds that these portfolios invest in are summarised here. If the funds that are held in the portfolios change, the types of investment risk that the portfolios are exposed to will also change.

Fixed income investments, such as bonds, can be higher risk or lower risk depending on the financial strength of the issuer of the bond, where the bond ranks in the issuer’s structure or the length of time until the bond matures. It is possible that the income due or the repayment value will not be met. They can be particularly affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Equities (company shares) can experience high levels of price fluctuation. Smaller company shares can be riskier than the largest companies, companies in less developed countries (emerging markets) can be risker than those in developed countries and funds focused on a particular country or region can be riskier than funds that are more geographically diverse. These risks can result in bigger movements in the value of the fund. Equities can be affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Derivatives may be used within funds for different reasons, usually to reduce risk, which can be called “hedging”. This can limit gains in certain circumstances as well. Derivatives can also be used to generate income or to increase the risk being taken, which can have positive or negative outcomes. The derivatives used can be options or futures which are types of contracts that are dealt on an exchange or negotiated with a third party. More complex derivatives may also be used. Derivatives can also introduce leverage to a fund, which is similar to borrowing money to invest.

Funds may have holdings in investments such as commodities (raw materials), infrastructure and property as well as other areas such as specialist lending and renewable energy. These investments will be indirect, which means accessing these assets by investing in companies, other funds or similar investment vehicles. These investments can also increase risk and experience sharp price movements. Funds focused on specific sectors or industries, such as property or infrastructure, may carry a higher level of risk and can experience bigger movements in value. Certain investments can be impacted by decisions made by third parties, such as governments or regulators.

There are many other factors that can influence the value of a fund. These include currency movements, changes in the law, regulations or tax, operational systems or third-party failures, or financial market conditions that make it difficult to buy or sell investments for the fund.

*Funds that are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, or that invest in other funds that themselves are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, may have their potential growth or income constrained as a result.

*Applicable for the Premier Miton Blend Portfolios only.

Important Information

This is a marketing communication.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors.

Reference to any investment should not be considered advice or an investment recommendation.

All data is sourced to Premier Miton unless otherwise stated.

Source for performance data: FE Analytics and Bloomberg.

All performance figures have been given in £ sterling.

Bloomberg Index Services Limited BLOOMBERG® and the indices referenced herein (the “Indices” and each such index , an “Index”) are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P .and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”) and/or one or more third-party providers (each such provide a “Third-Party Provider,”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes to PREMIER FUND MANAGERS LIMITED (the “Licensee”). To the extent a Third-Party Provider contributes intellectual property in connection with the Index , such third-party products, company names and logos are trademarks or service marks, and remain the property of such Third -Party Provider. Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Bloomberg’s licensors, including a Third-Party Provider, approves or endorses this material, or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither Bloomberg nor Bloomberg’s licensors, including a Third- Party Provider, shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.

Source: FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2026. “FTSE®” is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and /or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Source: MSCI. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI's express written consent.

This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts, images (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of Premier Fund Managers Limited and/or Premier Portfolio Managers Limited (“Premier Miton”) or any third party involved in providing or compiling any Information (collectively, the “Data Providers”) and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be modified, reverse-engineered, manipulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without prior written permission from Premier Miton. All rights in the Information are reserved by Premier Miton and/or the Data Providers.

Marketing communication issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

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©Premier Miton Investors. 2026. Issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Paternoster House, 65 St Paul’s Churchyard, London EC4M 8AB.