Go to main site

Home / Insights

Original thinking | 7 August 2025

Monthly news and views covering July

Monthly news and views covering July hero image
Monthly news and views covering July hero image
Headshot of Ian ReesHeadshot of Chris Robinson

Ian Rees &

Chris Robinson

xLinkedInEmailSharePrint

IN BRIEF

  • Record highs for equity markets in the UK, US and Europe
  • Trade deals between the US, UK, Europe, South Korea and Japan provide comfort
  • The Federal Reserve makes no change to interest rates once again

For information purposes only. Any views and opinions expressed here are those of the author at the time of writing and can change; they may not represent the views of Premier Miton and should not be taken as statements of fact, nor should they be relied upon for making investment decisions.

Investing involves risk.The value of an investment can go down as well as up which means that you could get back less than you originally invested when you come to sell your investment. The value of your investment might not keep up with any rise in the cost of living.

Premier Miton is unable to provide investment, tax or financial planning advice. We recommend that you discuss any investment decisions with a financial adviser.

For further information on the risks of investment and glossary terms please refer to the end of the document.


The month of July

Record highs for equity markets and mid-digit returns for the month provided the story board of July. Positive sentiment surrounding the company earnings season, a signing of President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and fading worries that tariffs could impact the global economy were the main drivers.

When we look at the main drivers of these positive returns in sterling terms, the S&P 500 Index rose 6.0%, leading it to positive territory year to date. This return was met only by the FTSE China Index also rallying 6.0%.

The FTSE All-Share Index rose 4.0% whilst FTSE Europe ex-UK Index and the Topix Index in Japan lagged developed market peers, +1.4% and +2.4% respectively. Encouragingly the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned +5.7% whilst MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index rose 5.5%.

Markets were fueled by a momentum driven view of Artificial Intelligence (AI) once again. Companies continued to mention the increased use of AI across business processes and manufacturing, as well as further capital expenditure in the future.

Whilst equities rallied, the yields on government bonds with a shorter date to maturity (the set date on which a bond or similar loan will be repaid by the borrower) rose from recent lows. This was influenced heavily by the economic releases weighing on the likelihood of successive interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and Federal Reserve by the end of the year.

The euphoria given to markets in the prior couple of months had been focused on a lower likelihood of tariffs and a probability that slowing growth would lead to multiple interest rate cuts by 2025-year end.

Stand out data points for the month included UK inflation hitting 3.6% for the year to June, with UK Global Domestic Product (GDP) rising 0.7% in the first quarter, the highest in a year.

In the US, inflation topped 2.7% for June, up from May’s reading of 2.4% and annualized GDP rose 3% for the second quarter. This offset the first quarter’s fall due to higher imports ahead of expected tariffs. Therefore the Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady once again, whilst also lowering the chances of a rate cut in September. This was much to the annoyance of Donald Trump, whose aim is to pressure Fed chair Jerome Powell’s to lower rates sooner. Much discussion from Trump during the month referenced Jerome Powells successor and the costs associated with running the Federal Reserve.

The European Central Bank (ECB) also held the deposit facility rate, paid by banks on reserves at the ECB, at 2.0%, even with GDP only growing at

0.1% for the second quarter. Promisingly, the forward-looking indicators in Europe, the manufacturing and services surveys all rose during the month. This is a positive turn around and further signs that debt raising by European Governments is starting to feed business growth.

Rising yields and company share prices is not a story we tend to tell very often, and the market continues to look through the short term higher for longer inflation narrative in the US and focus on 2026.


Key positioning for the portfolios

  • We made a change to the portfolios on the 31st July, following a strong return in equity markets
  • The change included profit taking in equities and allocating back to fixed income.
  • It also included an increase in European equities, as well as a reduction in Japanese holdings.
  • The team remain positive on the global growth outlook but believe it’s important to take profits after periods of strong performance.

Glossary

Assets

Different groups of investments such as company shares, bonds, commodities or property.

Bonds (or fixed income)

Types of investments that allow investors to loan money to governments and companies, usually in return for a regular fixed level of interest until the bond’s maturity date, plus the return of the original value of the bond at the maturity date. The price of bonds will vary, and the investment terms of bonds will also vary.

Capital Expenditure (Capex)

Money invested by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, land, technology, or equipment.

Corporate bonds

Issued by companies and similar to a loan in nature, usually paying a fixed rate of interest.

Equities

Another name for shares (or stock) in a company.

Government bonds

A type of bond, issued by a government. They pay out a regular fixed amount of interest until the bond’s maturity date, when the issue value of the bond should also be repaid. In the UK they are called gilts and in the US they are referred to as treasuries.

Index

An index is a method of tracking the performance of a group of shares, bonds, other assets or factors. For example, the FTSE 100 Index is made up of the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange.

Yield

The dividend per share divided by the stock's or fund’s price per share and expressed as a percentage. The historic yield is the dividend income distributed during the past year and expressed as a percentage of the share price on a particular day.

Risks

Typically, there is less risk of losing money over the long-term (which we define as over 5 years) from an investment that is considered low risk, although potential returns may also be lower. Investments considered higher risk typically offer greater opportunities for better long-term returns, though the risk of losing money is also likely to be higher.

The performance information presented in this document relates to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

Some of the main specific risks that apply to the funds that these portfolios invest in are summarised here. If the funds that are held in the portfolios change, the types of investment risk that the portfolios are exposed to will also change.

Fixed income investments, such as bonds, can be higher risk or lower risk depending on the financial strength of the issuer of the bond, where the bond ranks in the issuer’s structure or the length of time until the bond matures. It is possible that the income due or the repayment value will not be met. They can be particularly affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Equities (company shares) can experience high levels of price fluctuation. Smaller company shares can be riskier than the largest companies, companies in less developed countries (emerging markets) can be risker than those in developed countries and funds focused on a particular country or region can be riskier than funds that are more geographically diverse. These risks can result in bigger movements in the value of the fund. Equities can be affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Derivatives may be used within funds for different reasons, usually to reduce risk, which can be called “hedging”. This can limit gains in certain circumstances as well. Derivatives can also be used to generate income or to increase the risk being taken, which can have positive or negative outcomes. The derivatives used can be options or futures which are types of contracts that are dealt on an exchange or negotiated with a third party. More complex derivatives may also be used. Derivatives can also introduce leverage to a fund, which is similar to borrowing money to invest.

Funds may have holdings in investments such as commodities (raw materials), infrastructure and property as well as other areas such as specialist lending and renewable energy. These investments will be indirect, which means accessing these assets by investing in companies, other funds or similar investment vehicles. These investments can also increase risk and experience sharp price movements. Funds focused on specific sectors or industries, such as property or infrastructure, may carry a higher level of risk and can experience bigger movements in value. Certain investments can be impacted by decisions made by third parties, such as governments or regulators.

There are many other factors that can influence the value of a fund. These include currency movements, changes in the law, regulations or tax, operational systems or third-party failures, or financial market conditions that make it difficult to buy or sell investments for the fund.

*Funds that are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, or that invest in other funds that themselves are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, may have their potential growth or income constrained as a result.

*Applicable for the Premier Miton Blend Portfolios only.

Important Information

This is a marketing communication.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors.

Reference to any investment should not be considered advice or an investment recommendation.

All data is sourced to Premier Miton unless otherwise stated.

Source for performance data: FE Analytics.

All performance figures have been given in £ sterling.

Source: FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2025. “FTSE®” is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Copyright © 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Reproduction of S&P Indices in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P Indices.

Source: MSCI. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI's express written consent.

This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts, images (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of Premier Fund Managers Limited and/or Premier Portfolio Managers Limited (“Premier Miton”) or any third party involved in providing or compiling any Information (collectively, the “Data Providers”) and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be modified, reverse-engineered, manipulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without prior written permission from Premier Miton. All rights in the Information are reserved by Premier Miton and/or the Data Providers.

Marketing communication issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

017071/070825

Premier Miton Investors

Legal

  • Terms of use
  • Privacy
  • Cookies
  • Terms of use
  • Privacy
  • Cookies

Other links

  • Glossary
  • Protect against fraud
  • Modern slavery
  • Glossary
  • Protect against fraud
  • Modern slavery

Follow us

Have a question?

  • Contact
  • Contact

©Premier Miton Investors. 2025. Issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227.  Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.