Go to main site

Home / Insights

Original thinking | 4 July 2025

Monthly news and views covering June

Monthly news and views covering June hero image
Monthly news and views covering June hero image
Headshot of Chris RobinsonHeadshot of Ian Rees

Chris Robinson &

Ian Rees

xLinkedInEmailSharePrint

Monthly market news and views from the Managed Portfolio Service team.

For information purposes only. Any views and opinions expressed here are those of the author at the time of writing and can change; they may not represent the views of Premier Miton and should not be taken as statements of fact, nor should they be relied upon for making investment decisions.

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment can go down as well as up which means that you could get back less than you originally invested when you come to sell your investment. The value of your investment might not keep up with any rise in the cost of living.

Premier Miton is unable to provide investment, tax or financial planning advice. We recommend that you discuss any investment decisions with a financial adviser.

For further information on the risks of investment and glossary terms please refer to the end of the document.

IN BRIEF

  • S&P 500 Index hits record highs, a full recovery in one quarter as China and the US look to align on trade
  • Diplomatic progress, disinflation and normalisation are seen as the winners for equities
  • Oil prices drop back significantly on easing of middle east tensions

The month of June

June continued May’s positive market sentiment with the FTSE All-World index rising +2.8% in sterling terms. Markets looked past the noise of the middle east conflict and looked forward to imminent trade deals, further expansionary US fiscal policy, with Trump’s termed “beautiful bill”, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts in the US and UK by the year end.

The notable returns therefore came once again in the US, with the Nasdaq Composite Index climbing +4.7%, the S&P 500 Index rallying +3.2% and the smaller companies Russell 2000 Index climbing +3.5% all in sterling terms. This wasn’t too dissimilar to Europe where the FTSE Europe Smaller Companies (inc UK) Index rallied +3.3% and the FTSE Emerging Europe index climbed +6.0%, also in sterling terms, on the back of government defence spending and the lower interest rate environment relative to the UK and US.

Year-to-date there remains a stark contrast between the developed markets, even after this month’s stellar market performance. The FTSE Europe ex-UK Index is up +14.3%, the FTSE All-Share Index up +9.1% whilst the S&P 500 Index remains down -3.1% and the Russell 2000 Index is down -10.3% all in sterling terms.

The crescendo in markets over the last couple of months has been as much on hope and expectation than the reality of the economics. Of course, there remains fear in the UK and US about government deficits. Whilst the “big beautiful bill” may appear supportive for US consumers, as it leverages off the tax cuts implemented by Trump in his previous time in office, it also leaves question marks for borrowing costs and inflationary pressures. The reaction has clearly been felt by the US dollar which has continued to weaken.

Trade deals are the secondary area of concern as we near the 9thJuly, the end of the 90-day window Trump initiated for trade negotiation. China and the US met in Switzerland during the month to work on a trade deal, but this is yet to be settled. The same can be said for Japan, which is nearing a deal but yet to confirm. Finally, Europe is pushing for a 10% tariff on both sides of the fence, but work is still to be done.

What we do know, is that the economics across all these regions continue to suggest a normalisation of growth. Retail sales in the US and UK have been mixed, European manufacturing has been buoyed by defence spending but the numbers are nothing to shout about – it’s all just very normal (not a bad thing).

It is therefore not a surprise that the prices of Government bonds in the UK and US rose alongside equities during the month of June. It’s fair to say the hopes of trade deals, interest rate cuts and calming the middle-east situation have been a lot to digest and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a little more volatility in July.

Key positioning for the portfolios

  • The last changes made to the portfolios were on the 10th April, which happened to coincide nicely with the low point of the equity stock markets this year.
  • We have maintained our current asset allocation weightings in the portfolios after adding some more to our holdings in European equities and took some profits by selling some of our UK and Japan investments.
  • Within our fixed income investments, we still prefer higher quality corporate bonds and UK government bonds.

Glossary

Bonds (or fixed income)

Types of investments that allow investors to loan money to governments and companies, usually in return for a regular fixed level of interest until the bond’s maturity date, plus the return of the original value of the bond at the maturity date. The price of bonds will vary, and the investment terms of bonds will also vary.

Corporate bonds

Issued by companies and similar to a loan in nature, usually paying a fixed rate of interest.

Developed market

A country that is more developed economically (as opposed to an emerging market – see below).

Emerging markets

Countries with less developed financial markets and which are generally considered riskier than investing in developed markets.

Government bonds

A type of bond, issued by a government. They pay out a regular fixed amount of interest until the bond’s maturity date, when the issue value of the bond should also be repaid. In the UK they are called gilts and in the US they are referred to as treasuries.

Index

An index is a method of tracking the performance of a group of shares, bonds, other assets or factors. For example, the FTSE 100 Index is made up of the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange.

Risks

Typically, there is less risk of losing money over the long-term (which we define as over 5 years) from an investment that is considered low risk, although potential returns may also be lower. Investments considered higher risk typically offer greater opportunities for better long-term returns, though the risk of losing money is also likely to be higher.

The performance information presented in this document relates to the past. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

Some of the main specific risks that apply to the funds that these portfolios invest in are summarised here. If the funds that are held in the portfolios change, the types of investment risk that the portfolios are exposed to will also change.

Fixed income investments, such as bonds, can be higher risk or lower risk depending on the financial strength of the issuer of the bond, where the bond ranks in the issuer’s structure or the length of time until the bond matures. It is possible that the income due or the repayment value will not be met. They can be particularly affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Equities (company shares) can experience high levels of price fluctuation. Smaller company shares can be riskier than the largest companies, companies in less developed countries (emerging markets) can be risker than those in developed countries and funds focused on a particular country or region can be riskier than funds that are more geographically diverse. These risks can result in bigger movements in the value of the fund. Equities can be affected by changes in central bank interest rates and by inflation.

Derivatives may be used within funds for different reasons, usually to reduce risk, which can be called “hedging”. This can limit gains in certain circumstances as well. Derivatives can also be used to generate income or to increase the risk being taken, which can have positive or negative outcomes. The derivatives used can be options or futures which are types of contracts that are dealt on an exchange or negotiated with a third party. More complex derivatives may also be used. Derivatives can also introduce leverage to a fund, which is similar to borrowing money to invest.

Funds may have holdings in investments such as commodities (raw materials), infrastructure and property as well as other areas such as specialist lending and renewable energy. These investments will be indirect, which means accessing these assets by investing in companies, other funds or similar investment vehicles. These investments can also increase risk and experience sharp price movements. Funds focused on specific sectors or industries, such as property or infrastructure, may carry a higher level of risk and can experience bigger movements in value. Certain investments can be impacted by decisions made by third parties, such as governments or regulators.

There are many other factors that can influence the value of a fund. These include currency movements, changes in the law, regulations or tax, operational systems or third-party failures, or financial market conditions that make it difficult to buy or sell investments for the fund.

*Funds that are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, or that invest in other funds that themselves are managed to maintain a specific risk profile, may have their potential growth or income constrained as a result.

*Applicable for the Premier Miton Blend Portfolios only.

Important Information

This is a marketing communication.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information provided, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors.

Reference to any investment should not be considered advice or an investment recommendation.

All data is sourced to Premier Miton unless otherwise stated as at the 30 June.

Source for performance data: FE Analytics.

All performance figures have been given in £ sterling.

Source: FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2025. “FTSE®” is a trademark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and / or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Copyright © 2025, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Reproduction of S&P Indices in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of S&P. S&P does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. S&P DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE. In no event shall S&P be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of S&P Indices.

This document and all of the information contained in it, including without limitation all text, data, graphs, charts, images (collectively, the “Information”) is the property of Premier Fund Managers Limited and/or Premier Portfolio Managers Limited (“Premier Miton”) or any third party involved in providing or compiling any Information (collectively, the “Data Providers”) and is provided for informational purposes only. The Information may not be modified, reverse-engineered, manipulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without prior written permission from Premier Miton. All rights in the Information are reserved by Premier Miton and/or the Data Providers.

Marketing communication issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

016806/040725

Premier Miton Investors

Legal

  • Terms of use
  • Privacy
  • Cookies
  • Terms of use
  • Privacy
  • Cookies

Other links

  • Glossary
  • Protect against fraud
  • Modern slavery
  • Glossary
  • Protect against fraud
  • Modern slavery

Follow us

Have a question?

  • Contact
  • Contact

©Premier Miton Investors. 2025. Issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227.  Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.