US election positioning – we could get fireworks!

Everyone’s favourite question at the moment, how do you position into the US election? Here’s what we think for fixed income:

Duration risk – keeping it short, expect curve steepening

Both candidates have policies that are inflationary and if anything, over the last few weeks those policies have become even more expansionary and inflationary than they previously were. New policies include, on the Trump side, tax cuts on overtime pay, social security benefits, auto-loan interest and state taxes. On the Harris side, new policies include tax credits for newborn children and home purchases.

But it’s the Trump side where things get really interesting. Across the board import tariffs of 10-20%, up from his earlier plan of 10%. 60% or higher on imports from China. Advisers to Trump maintain this is not inflationary. We think otherwise.

When we look at the sheer scale of the borrowing each candidate may put into action, the numbers are staggering. Trump’s economic plans are forecast to raise federal debt by double that of Harris, by some $7.5trn, yes a $7.5 trillion increase! It’s not like Harris’s economic plans amount to austerity either, forecast to increase debt by some $3.5trn. These are increases on an already large budget deficit by historical standards outside of a recession:

US Treasury Deficit as percentage of Nominal GDP

Source: Bloomberg/US Treasury, from 30.09.1974 to 30.09.2024

In short, there is no need to be running a great deal of duration here, especially at the longer end of the curve. The short end of the curve may well benefit from further rate cuts in the near term. We expect a lower non—farms payroll number for October, but the implication is that with such expansionary policies over the term of the next presidency any weakness in the economy will be short lived. Hence the longer dates should be weaker than shorter dates and the curve should steepen as a result.

Credit risk – keep it light

On the economic growth side of the equation, we think that both candidates are good for the economy given how expansionary their fiscal policies are. However, Trump’s policies are likely to create more volatility than Harris’s and there are clearly greater risks with Trump, given the sheer scale of the implied budget deficit – that it causes much much higher long term interest rates and this affects riskier assets, such as credit and equities.

It’s easy to go into these events hedged and wedged without wholly thinking about how the market will react the other side and whether these hedges are indeed necessary. For credit, the reality is quite simple this time around. We are trading at very tight levels of credit spread versus history, therefore we don’t need to be running a great deal of credit risk purely based on valuation because there isn’t a great deal to play for. The pay-off is asymmetric, no need to be a hero.

End of October/beginning of November shaping up to be potentially seismic for markets

On this side of the pond, we have the budget in the UK on October 30th, which from reports is going to be expansionary, potentially very expansionary with Rachel Reeves looking to give herself additional “headroom”. Then shortly after on November 1st we get the next non-farms report, which we expect to be lower due to the recent hurricanes. The US election is on the 5th Nov, the next Fed meeting is on the 6th and the Bank of England meets on the 7th. Strap yourselves in, bonfire night could be the least of the fireworks!

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Risks

The value of stock market investments will fluctuate, which will cause fund prices to fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

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“US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”).

The information in this site is solely for the purpose of acquiring information as, or for, an Institutional Investor (a corporate or other non-retail investment professional acting for their own account). This information must not be used or relied upon by anyone that may be considered a “retail investor” by the home regulator of the country from which this site is accessed.  

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Premier Miton Investors has expressed its own views and opinions on this website, and these may change and there is no obligation to update them. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment, tax, legal or other advice. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice.

Neither Premier Miton Investors nor any of its group companies or affiliates accepts any liability for any losses arising directly or indirectly from any information accessed from this website, to the fullest extent permitted by law.

By clicking accept you acknowledge that your use of this website is subject to our privacy policy, cookie policy and our general legal and compliance information available on our website.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended. They may not be offered or sold in the United States of America, its territories and possessions, any State of the United States of America or the District of Columbia or offered, sold or transferred to US Persons (as defined below). The investment products referred to on this website have not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited has not been and will not be registered under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940.

 “US Person” generally includes the following: (a) any natural person resident in the United States; (b) a partnership or corporation organised or incorporated under the laws of the United States; (c) any estate of which any executor, or administrator, is a US Person; (d) any trust of which any trustee is a US Person; (e) any agency or branch of a non-US entity located in the United States; (f) any non-discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) for the benefit or account of a US Person; (g) any discretionary account or similar account (other than an estate or trust) held by a dealer or other fiduciary organised, incorporated or (if an individual) resident in the United States; and (h) any partnership or corporation if: i. organised or incorporated under the laws of any non-US jurisdiction; ii. formed by a US Person principally for the purpose of investing in securities not registered under the 1933 Act. In addition, a Shareholder must qualify as a “Non-United States Person” as used in the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) Rule 4.7.

 Investment products referred to on this website may not be sold or transferred to a US citizen, or an entity taxed as such or required to file a tax return as such under the United States federal income tax laws (a “US Tax Resident”). If those investment products are held by a US Person, a US Tax Resident or a person who does not qualify as a “Non-United States Person” within the meaning of CFTC Rule 4.7, Premier Portfolio Managers Limited shall be entitled to redeem such Shareholder’s entire holdings.