The case for emerging markets

14 April 2022

David Jane
Premier Miton Macro Thematic Multi Asset Team

Emerging market performance goes in long cycles reflecting the dynamics of the underlying economies and stock market fashions. The 1980’s were the decade of the Asian Tigers, ultimately ending with the Asian financial crisis. The early part of the 21st century was the rise of China and BRICs period, culminating in the Global Financial Crisis and the QE decade which favoured large-cap, particularly US equities.

Potentially, we are now entering another period of material emerging market outperformance.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index relative to MSCI World Index

Source: Bloomberg, 12.04.1988 – 08.04.2022.

Considering emerging markets as a whole ignore the reality in our opinion, as each previous bull phase has been driven by a particular country or region. The various components of the universe have very different economic and sectoral compositions. China is obviously a big export and construction driven economy. Its stock market is dominated by a small number of big-cap tech stocks, which in turn dominate some emerging market indices. Taiwan and India are the next biggest components, and these markets are also very technology heavy; semiconductors in Taiwan’s case and IT outsourcing in India’s.

So arguably the case for emerging markets is undermined by the inflation, rising bond yield case we have been making for some time. However, the large Chinese internet companies have already more than halved and semiconductors are one of our favoured areas longer term. Emerging markets may be relatively more immune to rising interest rates than they might at first appear.

For us, however, the interest in emerging markets comes largely from elsewhere. We have written notes recently discussing the deglobalisation theme and the increasing importance of access to energy and other raw materials. As a consequence, certain emerging markets have renewed attraction, having been out of favour for some time. Behind those top 3 emerging markets sit Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and various other countries. Many of these may come strongly into favour as a result of being commodity producers and not consumers, in a world where resource scarcity is becoming an issue. These emerging markets have traditionally done well in periods where commodity prices are strong.

One concern about emerging markets has been government indebtedness leading to default or currency weakness. This is, relatively, less concerning now, given the high levels of debt to GDP seen in the developed world and the benefit these countries will receive both in terms of government revenues and foreign exchange from higher commodity prices.

We have recently made some tentative increases in emerging markets both in bonds and equities – still relatively small positions, as we have material exposure to the trends driving these markets in our equities elsewhere, especially our exposure to materials. We do expect however, to be watching these markets much more closely than we have in the recent past.

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Risks

The value of stock market investments will fluctuate, and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

Investments made in bonds, equities or other assets in less-developed countries generally carry higher risk than in developed countries.

Commodity prices can fall and rise sharply depending on supply and demand, the economic background and financial market conditions. Exposure will never be direct to any commodity.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

For Investment Professionals only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within this document.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this document, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors. The information given and opinions expressed are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice.

All data is sourced to Premier Miton unless otherwise stated. Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on the content of this document.

Source: MSCI. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent.

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Issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

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