Is the current inflation structural or cyclical?

8 September 2022

David Jane
Premier Miton Macro Thematic Multi Asset Team

This is the single most important question for portfolio managers over the coming months and years. If inflation is a temporary cyclical phenomenon as a result of pent up demand and consumer support programmes during the lockdowns, then the old investment paradigms will reassert. If we have gone through a structural change, the way many managers construct portfolios might need to change going forward.

The arguments in favour of temporary inflation surround the nature of the interventions which took place during lockdowns. Obviously, the closing of much of the global economy was a temporary measure as were the income support measures, which to some degree, sustained demand during and after lockdowns. These disruptions are now settling down and working their way through the system. Income support measures are rolling off, supply chain disruptions are beginning to ease and consumers’ initial desire to get out and spend is abating. Indeed, the global economy appears to be heading for a contraction, which is inevitably disinflationary in the near term.

However, these deflationary trends need to be considered in the context of some more structural factors. First to consider, is the basic nature of the global economy. For the period from the late 1980s until the last 5 or 10 years, the bulk of the world’s economy could be considered to be free market or moving in a more free market direction. Even China, and the former Soviet states have been becoming increasingly free economies. This is important, as free market policies are typically disinflationary, while central planning is more inflationary. We can see this clearly in how China’s opening up has driven falling inflation worldwide.

Recent trends have been much more in the managed economy direction. China is a prime example. Under Xi Jinping, China has become much more interventionist. Obviously this is clear with its Covid policies, but the new direction goes far beyond this. China, bringing some of its big technology success stories under much greater government control, is just one example of a move into a more statist direction. The same trends are evident in the West and worldwide. A more top-down interventionist world is likely a more inflationary world.

Another example of structural inflationary trends, along similar lines, is the interventionist energy policy that has aggressively been pursued in the West. Subsidies for renewables, combined with discouragement of fossil fuels and nuclear have given rise to higher inflation and lower productivity. The same can be said of the policies that have prevented investment in other heavy industries in the West. A lack of flexibility has been built into our economic systems as a consequence of policy, which ultimately has structurally increased inflation.

Now inflation has become an issue, governments across the world are making the same mistakes as in previous inflationary periods. Inflation at its heart is too much demand (money) chasing too little supply. Yet nothing is being done to address the supply side of the problem. Interventions are taking place which support people’s incomes, thus boosting demand. This will only exacerbate inflationary pressures. However, these are the only politically acceptable interventions; long term solutions are politically painful.

There are many other potentially inflationary factors at play in the world economy, including the retreat of globalisation, lack of investment in new mineral production, structurally increased transport costs due to regulation, and so on. We lean towards the higher for longer view on inflation for the coming years.

This has important impacts in both the short and longer term for markets. In equities, higher inflation implies lower equity valuations in the long run and favours value versus growth shares. We would argue this is not yet fully reflected in equity valuations. Higher bond yields are to be expected in the longer term, but perhaps in the near-term, economic contraction may present a favourable environment for government bonds at least. We remain very defensive, particularly as the trend in equities remains downwards.

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Risks

The value of stock market investments will fluctuate, and investors may not get back the original amount invested.

Higher inflation can lead to some investments falling in value, particularly those with a fixed level of interest, for example government bonds and corporate bonds.

Forecasts are not reliable indicators of future returns.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:

For Investment Professionals only. Not for onward distribution. No other persons should rely on any information contained within this document.

Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this document, we regret that we cannot accept responsibility for any omissions or errors. The information given and opinions expressed are subject to change and should not be interpreted as investment advice.

Persons who do not have professional experience in matters relating to investments should not rely on the content of this document.

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Issued by Premier Miton Investors. Premier Portfolio Managers Limited is registered in England no. 01235867. Premier Fund Managers Limited is registered in England no. 02274227. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and are members of the ‘Premier Miton Investors’ marketing group and subsidiaries of Premier Miton Group plc (registered in England no. 06306664). Registered office: Eastgate Court, High Street, Guildford, Surrey GU1 3DE.

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